Container ships transport more than 90% of all goods shipped in the world and more than $4 trillion worth of goods annually.  But it can take over a month for those goods to sail from Beijing to New York – and supply chains are increasingly vulnerable to disruption.  Shipping costs, already high, can escalate when deliveries are delayed.

Within the United States, 71% of all tonnage in the US moves by trucks.  But there aren’t enough truck drivers available to optimize the speed of delivery.  The current trucker labor shortage is at its highest level in 15 years – and growing worse.

And despite persistent efforts to expand trucker recruitment, the deepening shortage – which also jack ups the cost of labor – isn’t expected to ease anytime soon.

How can shippers speed up their cargo deliveries without depending on more high-cost personnel?  One possible answer is drones.

Currently, some cargo does move by air – with the help of manned jetcraft – but air freight still accounts for just a fraction of total cargo transport.  Air freight has increased rapidly due to the rise of e-commerce and a growing consumer demand for faster delivery.  But the demand for speed is also expensive:  the cost of air freight is often 3-4 times the cost of sea, rail and road transport.

Until recently, drones have posed an additional problem because their cargo carrying capacity is relatively low, in part, because their batteries consume an enormous share of their payload.  The challenge for designers is to build a large scale unmanned aircraft on par with a Boeing 747 that can fly and make heavy cargo deliveries across comparable distances – without repeated stops for recharging – and to do so cheaply.

Currently, a number of companies in the United States and Europe are competing to produce just such a state-of-the-art cargo drone, with plans for full-scale commercialization just around the corner.

Richmond, CA-based Natilus is one such industry pioneer.  The company is designing a uniquely shaped aircraft dedicated to cargo shipping exclusively, with 60% more cargo space than a Boeing or Airbus plane designed primarily for passengers – and then repurposed for cargo transport, a result that is far from optimal.

Natilus is also moving away from the standard model of a two-pilot manned aircraft flying alone to a single pilot helming one aircraft but simultaneously commanding an entire fleet of unmanned aircraft remotely.  Natilus’ drone fleet model not only reduces pilot costs but also allows air freight deliveries to obtain sufficient scale to make them efficient and profitable.  The drone fleet can service more consumers simultaneously and faster and more sustainably than ever before, and in theory, at reduced cost to shipper and receiver alike.

Another company, San Francisco-based Volansi, has already begun autonomous cargo deliveries in locations like the Bahamas – in this case, specializing in the shipment of replacement parts to companies facing periodic breakdowns in their assembly-line manufacturing operations.

Prolonged breakdowns can cost companies hundreds of thousands and in some cases millions of dollars in lost production and sales order fulfillment. Volansi’s eVTOL cargo drones can replace the cumbersome supply chain of road and sea vehicles by island hopping quickly from site to site, allowing factory production to resume quickly.

Major air freight carriers like UPS and DHL are also jumping into the large cargo drone market.  DHL has closed a deal with Dronamics to develop a logistics and parcel network throughout Europe.  The network includes more than 4,000 cargo drones with a capacity of 770 pounds and 1,500 miles of autonomy.  Another company, El Roy Air, has just announced the launch of a new cargo drone it calls the “Chaparral.”  The company has partnered with the Dublin-based firm, LCI, which services a worldwide medical relief supply network, with hundreds of clients.

Some industry analysts believe that long-distance cargo drones – which some refer to as “middle mile” drones, because road vehicles and human cargo handlers are still involved on the front and back end of deliveries – might one day overshadow smaller package delivery drones, especially for business-to-business shipments.

One advantage of middle-mile cargo drones is their lower safety risk.  For example, Dramatics’ Black Swan drone will fly at 20,000 feet and deliver its packages to airstrips and regional and local distribution centers, avoiding more intrusive point-to-point residential deliveries, which are noisy and sometimes produce complaints from local residents.

In theory, with their reduced safety risk, large cargo drones should have little trouble obtaining regulatory relief from the FAA.  In fact, until recently, the opposite has been the case.  While companies like Zipline and Wing, which deliver store goods and medical supplies weighing 5 pounds or less,  have obtained waivers for long-distance BVLOS flights, most cargo companies are still awaiting theirs – or have not yet applied.

One exception is Ameriflight and its drone partner Matternet, which received a complete FAA exemption for nationwide cargo flights in May of this year.  It’s an important precedent and other large cargo companies will soon be following in Ameriflight’s footsteps, in theory speeding their path to commercialization.

The business case for accelerated FAA approvals of large cargo drone flights is undeniable.  In addition, removing truck freight from the nation’s roads could have major traffic and sustainability benefits.  Studies suggest that 20% of road congestion is due to delivery trucks, which emit toxic fuel exhaust and account for 30% of all road vehicle pollution.

With increased support from the FAA, the drone logistics market could mushroom from just $8.3 billion in 2021 to a whopping $53.3 billion by 2027, according to Allied Market Research.  That’s a CAGR of 20.8%, the highest of any sector in the drone industry.