Commercial UAV News has just released its end-of-the year report identifying 7 key trends that will shape the drone industry in 2024.  Sales growth and the opening of new drone markets, especially in Asia, are only the most obvious signs of the industry’s ongoing success, the report notes.  Fueling this success, which will accelerate rapidly in the coming year, the report predicts, is the integration of cutting-edge technologies into day-to-day drone operations.  In addition, the expansion of drone delivery networks and loosened regulatory constraints will allow drones to become even more widely used in a number of leading sectors, due to their cost, operational, safety and sustainability advantages.  In short, 2024 is going to be a banner year.

The report notes that few topics are generating more discussion in Drone World than “artificial intelligence,” or AI.  The impact of AI is being felt at all levels, from autonomous drone piloting to automated data collection.  It’s AI that allows drone cameras and sensors to translate their surveillance data into 3D orthomosaic maps and precise modeling estimates, virtually at the push of a button. The report quotes Brendan Groves, an official at Skydio, a leading drone company, who notes: “AI is for drones what Windows was for computers.”  AI, he says, can allow drones to take over increasing amounts of “dull” work previously performed by humans and achieve superior results – and to do it more quickly and efficiently to boot.  And with the introduction of AI-generated “detect and avoid” modules that can adjust flight trajectories to avert collisions, the new technology is making drone flying safer and more reliable.

The growth of AI and the promise of enhanced flight performance and safety is also making possible some important FAA regulatory changes, the report notes – namely, more Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) waivers for long-distance flights over populated areas.  Wing and Zipline have already received new BVLOS waivers for retail deliveries in a growing number of local markets; Percepto has received one for infrastructure inspections nationwide.  But the coming year is likely to witness a wholesale increase in these waivers as the FAA also moves toward implementing final regulations on BVLOS flights that would apply to qualifying drone companies across the board.

Several other trends are likely to accompany these developments, the report suggests.  One is the expansion of retail delivery networks based on the development of ground-based sensors as well as remote vertiports and charging stations that can extend the life of drone batteries to allow for long-distance flights.  Currently, most retail drones operate in geographically circumscribed zones in partnership with a single supplier and its customers. In 2024, many drone companies will begin operating at scale, servicing multiple suppliers with a single remote pilot managing an entire drone fleet.  Operating costs will be slashed and drone deliveries may become faster and cheaper for customers – and more profitable for drone firms.

These new operational trends won’t be limited to the retail sector, the report notes.  There’s also a growing trend toward expanded BVLOS authority for larger and heavier B2B cargo drone deliveries. Part of the impetus for BVLOS approvals in the heavy cargo sector is coming from growing interest in drone “super-highways” like the 120-mile long Project Skyway in the UK and the 50-mile long NUAIR drone “corridor” in upstate New York. Transportation planners are anxious to replace manned aircraft and combustion-engine trucks that contribute a disproportionate share to traffic congestion and air pollution.  Drones can also help resolve the persistent supply chain bottlenecks that are hampering international and interstate commerce, the report notes.

“Counter-drone” programming is another key trend to watch, according to Commercial UAV News. With more drones flying, under a patchwork of federal, state and local regulations, the threat to airports, stadiums, prisons and large-scale public events is growing.  Unauthorized use of drones by terrorist groups, gang networks and rogue hobbyists is increasing the need for drones that can monitor, deter and even intercept intruding aircraft.  Law enforcement agencies will likely be granted expanded authority to more aggressively intervene against potentially dangerous drone intrusions.  Government support and funding for the development of a wide range of counter-drone technologies – everything from GPS and radio frequency denial and jamming to ground- and air-based interception systems – will also be expanded substantially, the report notes.

A final trending area is the diversification of drone “services.”  Increasingly, companies are moving beyond a single commercial vertical and applying their vehicles, their software, and their experience to a wider range of customers.  Finland-based FlyByGuys has extended its expertise in tower and construction site inspections to encompass thermal inspections as well as traffic management analysis. The company recently diversified into drone light shows, one of the industry’s newest and fastest growing niches.  Another example is Peru’s RCP Ingenieros, which specializes in oil and gas inspections.  Increasingly, the company is leasing its drone services to companies that would rather not become an aviation concern.  “We have become drone experts in many fields and our future lies in the possibility of new applications and the expansion of our offerings nationally and internationally,” RCP president Ruben Contreras says.